It's on now, she's doing a show about being prepared for a pandemic.

By Colette on Tuesday, January 24, 2006 - 05:29 pm:

Wished I had seen this earlier. What did she say?

By Heaventree on Tuesday, January 24, 2006 - 05:54 pm:

Check out her website, it's a very real threat. We should be prepared to have enough food and water for at least a 6 week period. If you have any medications that you must take, you should if you can, stock pile. Things like heart medications, diabetes medications etc.

I'm not sure what our government is doing, however your President wanted to spend $7 billion on a vaccine and it was squashed to $3 billion by the senate, I believe.

People are not taking it seriously enough. Oprah said we should have learned a lesson from Katrina.

They are saying not "if" it happens but "when" it happens the global economy will crash. If local governments are not prepared we will lose essential services, like water, electricity etc. He also said no one will becoming to the rescue once this happens, you will be on your own. Hospitals will not be able to handle all of the sick and we will have a real problem with burying the dead.

They said very much the same thing as what was reported in National Geographic October 2005 so if you can get your hands on a copy of that issue it is very informative.

Apparently pandemics occur every 20-30-50 years so we are due for one. The last really scary one was in 1918. They are estimating that if this one is similar to the one in 1918, 180 to 360 million people will die. People who are most likely to die are pregnant women (50% mortality) and people between the ages of 20-40. They say that people who have the strongest immune systems are more likely to die.

They are estimating that the virus will come in 3 waves lasting weeks at a time over an 18 to 36 month period.

The above is not my opinion or factual information that you should rely on, it's just information that I remember from the show. So please forgive if I got something wrong.

Sorry I know this is kind of a gruesome post, but I thought it was important information.

By Conni on Tuesday, January 24, 2006 - 06:42 pm:

I watched it. Makes me just want to stay home. But who can do that?!

By Annie2 on Tuesday, January 24, 2006 - 10:29 pm:

I watched it, too. It was very informative. I did come away with the feeling that there is really nothing a normal citizen can do except, of course, be aware that each family will have to rely on themselves instead of official personnel or volunteers.

By Reds9298 on Tuesday, January 24, 2006 - 10:37 pm:

I saw this info on 60 Minutes 3-4 weeks ago. I was appalled at how serious of a threat this could become. There's not much one can do, so I try not think about it!

By Karefl on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 09:03 am:

Dh has been researching this for a work project that he's involved with. When I saw the post here I set it to record for him. He said that everything that was said on Oprah is pretty much what he's been hearing in his research. I think that the key is being prepared. We just re-financed our house & I asked dh if we should take our cash out $$$ & set up our food pantry! LOL

By Janet on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 09:29 am:

I hate reading about, hearing about, worrying about things like this... I confess, I've been ignoring it all, hoping it'll go away. I don't know what good it would do, knowing about it, since there's nothing we can do anyway! People say, "be prepared," but how? It's not like Y2K where you can stockpile supplies, or a hurricane warning, where you board up your house. Stay away from the chickens, I guess...

By Conni on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 09:45 am:

Every time I stock pile food, I get lazy dont go to grocery store and we eat the stockpile. rofl hmmmm...

Dont leave me alone with candy either... I made millionaires last weekend and ate them all by yesterday afternoon. Probably why my tummy hurt. ;)

By Colette on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 10:12 am:

We just buy extra of stuff we will eat anyways and try to replace it as it goes. I started doing this after 9-11.

By Crystal915 on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 11:13 am:

I really think we are freaking out over nothing. I may eat those words one day, but in a society that thrives on fear, I'm not surprised or concerned by the "pandemic" predictions.

By Heaventree on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 12:49 pm:

I think it's really scary as well and have tried my best not to dwell on it. After watching the show I was up until midnight last night surfing and looking for information. I am feeling a bit panicked. I lived through the SARS ordeal and worked with respiratory specialists who were right in the heart of the epidemic. Had lunch with many of them and one even said "I don't know if you should be sitting across the table from me". He was worried and exhausted. He had also lost colleagues to the disease. I wasn't worried for some reason. This was a time when I was not pregnant and I didn't have any children.

I am trying to keep it in all in perspective, we all remember SARS, Ebola and Y2K. Not the big scares that the experts thought they were going to be, it may very well be the same with Avian Flu. We just don't know.

As for what we can do, there are plenty of things. Practice diligent hand washing and teach your children the importance of this. During flu season it's important to remember to try and not touch your eyes, nose and mouth. I know a tough one, especially with little ones. You can also stock a pantry with canned foods, dry beans, nuts, water, batteries, flash lights, candles, fire starters, first aid kits, pet food, otc medications, etc. These are all good things to have on hand anyway, any natural disaster could occur at anytime and if you are prepared the better off you will be.

If you want to keep track of the Avian Flu virus and don't want all the alarmist stuff out there, the best site I found was the WHO site (World Health Organization).

World Health Organization

The Avian Flu virus is now classified as a stage 3 virus, so currently not a huge risk.

By Dawnk777 on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 02:49 pm:

Is this another thing like Y2K, where it turned out to be a big nothing? I don't have a lot of room to stockpile lots of food. People stockpiled thousands of dollars for Y2K and nothing happened. Is this just gloom and doom, or is it real? Who knows.

By Karen~moderator on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 03:27 pm:

Kim has been following this very closely for quite a while, and we've discussed it more than once, and she's emailed me a bit of information on it. I think she knows more about this than any one, single source I've seen. Of course, she is more concerned since she works with young children.

I believe it *could* happen, and it scares the heck out of me.

By Breann on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 08:12 pm:

After reading the info on Oprah's site (the 1-8 question/answer info), I feel better about it than I did after reading this thread.
I think we, as human being, tend to pick out the worst, most dramatic parts of things like this and focus on them.

I do believe that it is a real threat, as are a dozen other things. We should always be prepared.

By Janet on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 09:21 am:

Again, how do you prepare for this? I don't know what everyone means by that. How can you prepare for being sick with no medical help? Because that's what the hype is all about... we are all doomed because there's no vaccine, no facilities, everyone will be dead or dying... (am I being over-dramatic?)

By Colette on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 09:37 am:

If this ever happened you would have to stay home and not go anywhere. So preparing yourself would mean having enough food and other supplies that would carry you through the quarrantine period.

this is about preparing yourself in the event of an outbreak so that you can do your best to limit your exposure to people who may be contaigous.

By Janet on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 09:44 am:

Maybe we should go back to digging fallout shelters and stocking them.

By Heaventree on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 10:21 am:

Colette, you are right about trying to limit your exposure by staying at home, the other part of this is that if the gobal economy were to crash there would be no grocery stores.

After reading Breann's comment I went back and read the Oprah site again. I have to say that the show was very doom and gloom, the music that was used, the promos and Oprah herself looked very frightened. Reading it in print it does not seem as scary. Although Oprah is a good source of information her programming is about getting people's attention and ratings so it could have been sensationalized for this reason.

Having a few days between seeing the show, I am now feeling less panicked, after all we cannot worry about things we have no control over. I will prepare anyway with building a pantry and I'll keep my eyes on the WHO website. I won't be building a fall out shelter.

By Janet on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 10:28 am:

Well, I won't, either. I'm just very susceptible to panic scenarios. My way of coping is to not think too hard about it. God is in control, not me (a good thing!) and it's not adding anything to my life to worry over it.

By Crystal915 on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 11:30 am:

I think we're all better off worrying abotu the regular flu, and other illnesses that are affecting us NOW. All of the "tips" for the Avian Flu are the same tips we would use to stay healthy any time. *IF* there was an outbreak of the Avian Flu, would we all really be holing up in our houses like it was a nuke? I still refuse to live in fear, if we die tomorrow, so be it. I'd much rather live my life to the fullest with a small risk, than be afraid of every little bug that "they" say is going to take over the world.

By Kim on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 04:16 pm:

Yes, Colette is right. I had initially thought it would be a couple of weeks and later learned that there would be second and third waves of infection. I think what I read was 16 weeks of supplies would be needed. If human to human transmission comes to our country you can bet I will not go to MY job. I get sick enough as it is. I have to stock up because of hurricanes anyway so its no big deal to me.

This truly is a matter of not if but when. If the WHO gets it under control and it doesn't spread, great. But,this is nature. There are a lot of people on this earth and nature will take care of its own. When there is too many of any species disease will ultimately take the old, young and weak, and the strong of the species will survive. This has happened before and will happen again.


Pandemics run in cycles. But this particular virus is really bad. This virus has been watched for the last decade? at least and it is now to the point of human to human infection. Again, not a matter of if, but when. They cannot begin to make a vaccine for it until the human to human infection begins. The mortality rate is tremendous. It would be worse than the other pandemics because it is a more virulant strain.

Its really not about being paranoid or a "they" mentality. The gov wouldn't be slowly letting out this info if it wasn't important. I think they have watched this evolve quietly so as NOT to disturb anyone but now they are to the point where it has to be addressed realistically. They just want people to have food and water on hand and also things like pain reducers, anti-diarrheal meds, thermometer, toilet paper, etc etc.

Here is one of the links and if you are really wondering take the time to read everything, not just what looks interesting.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/index.html#whatare

If anyone wants more links I would be glad to share them.

By Marcia on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 04:28 pm:

>


Actually, from the info on Oprah's site, the opposite is true in this case. The highest mortality rate will be in people between 20 and 40 - those with the highest immune systems. It doesn't make much sense to me, but that's what it says.
It also says that it could happen tonight, but it might not happen for many years.
I can't allow myself to live in panic. I can remember hearing the news that "the world was ending tonight" when I was a child, the Y2K panic, etc. As helpful as it can be, the media can certainly be our worst enemy!

By Kaye on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 04:35 pm:

I am not an alarmest by nature. I live in a hurricane city and have some water usually, but not always. I don't board windows or do too much. I think it was only a couple of years ago when we all freaked out about west nile virus. Yep it is real, it happens, people die. But ya know in the past 3 years I have known two people with west nile, they both are fine now. But I have known at least 4-5 people with cancer who didn't make it, a good friend died from a blood clot from routine surgery, another friends husband died while sleeping recently. When it is your time, it is your time, you can't waste the time you have in a panic!

By Kim on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 04:45 pm:

I am not going into a panic. I just like to be informed. I agree, people should not panic.

By Heaventree on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 07:34 pm:

Well finally, here is some good new on this topic:


Pitt researchers develop bird flu vac

It's a short read if you are interested. It appears that University of Pittsburg has developed a vaccine that can be produced rapidly and is working well with animals so far. I'm sure there will have to be clinical trials in humans before mass production, but this at least some good news.

By Breann on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 08:26 pm:

Marcia, I remember thinking the same thing about Y2K. I thought for sure that the world would be over!
And, you brought up a good point about west nile virus, as well. That was a BIG deal only a couple of years ago. I remember getting pretty concerned over that. It was supposedly going to be the next big epidemic.
And cancer, wouldn't it be wonderful if there was a vaccine for that? Wow.

By Marcia on Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 09:40 pm:

Not to mention the fact that I live where SARS was a real nightmare very recently. I just can't let myself get panicked about these things.
Breann, I was one of the few people who wasn't worried about Y2K!!